Sheffield Wednesday vs Preston - Preview
The first of the physical teams come to Hillsborough. We take a look at what we can expect from Ryan Lowe's men.
2 years is a long time in football, when Sheffield Wednesday were last in the Championship, the average number of passes per 90 was 345. Now, it is over 10% higher: 388. Some might say this is just because of the addition of Southampton. However, it might be hard to explain the decline in long passing, which has declined from 50/ 90 to 39/90 over the same period; a decrease of over 20%. The tempo of the game has also increased, with the passing rate (number of passes per minute of possession) increased from an average of 12.3 to 13.53; Norwich, the highest passing rate in 2020/21 with a score of 14.4, would have had to settle for 7th highest this season. The rate of progressive runs has also seen a big change, jumping some 30% from 11.59 in 2020/21 to 14.9 this season. This change is also reflected in defensive averages: in 2020/21, the average aerial duels per 90 was 52.63, this has decreased to just 37. The rate of aerial duels has nearly halved since Wyscout launched in the glory days of the 15/16 season when there was an average of 63 aerial duels per game. Looking at the data from the 2015/16 season, it is hard to believe it is the same game: progressive runs averaged just 6.7 per game (14.9 now) and longer passes were up at 57 (37 now). In 2015/16 Sheffield Wednesday’s team averaged a respectable 5.99 progressive runs (ball carries forward) per game with an average possession of 50%. The contemporary Sheffield Wednesday team, with just an average of 27% and complaints of static football, sit way adrift at the bottom of the progressive runs table with 4.71. It is hard to believe that the progressive run rate, (progressive runs/possession)*100, is up 6% from the 2015/16 season.
The Championship has transformed. It is more like a second Premier League than the type of tough-tackling, physical league some like to say.
Preston - a throwback team
Our start to life in the Championship has been met with 2 teams of the new generation, in possession zealot Russell Martin’s Southampton and wannabe zealot Liam Rosenior’s Hull. In fact, there aren’t many teams left of the old methodology: Millwall, Huddersfield, Bristol City and Rotherham join Saturday’s Hillsborough visitors, Preston, as the stereotypical physical Championship teams.
This can be most observed by goalkeeper Woodman, who on Saturday against Sunderland, played just one “short” pass. In the 2 games Woodman has played, his long passing rate is 77.5%. For reference, in Devis Vasquez’s solitary game against Hull last week his long passing rate was 16%.
Woodman’s passing against Bristol City was a little more varied than the one-dimensional approach against Sunderland. However, it still represented a long-pass rate of 50%.
There are similar themes from the pass maps from the 2 league games Preston have played so far, they tend to go long to the right, or short-mid range to the left.
Preston may not be as ideologically wedded to this longer passing from the back style as it seems, as the reversal happened against Salford, playing with keeper Cornell as Woodman was rested, they played a long pass rate of just 10%. I think how they play will largely depend on how they see Sheffield Wednesday as a threat.
A reel of Preston’s goal kicks across the 3 games are below. Showing their longer passing method in the 2 league games, sandwiched in between the shorter passing style vs Salford.
If I was in Munoz’s shoes, I would be expecting Preston to kick long with Woodman returning to goal. And with the kicks aimed predominantly at the right side, where former Wednesday loan striker, Will Keane, joins target Brad Potts on the right. The implications for this are, we might need a bit more of a physical presence on the left, so it might be an idea for Akin Famewo to retain his place.
The same is true of Preston’s open play passing as with their GK passing. The most frequent long pass (excluding goal kicks) from the Sunderland game was Woodman to Potts, who plays on right of midfield in a 343 formation. In the clip below, you start to see what a throwback team Preston are.
Defying data
Sheffield Wednesday have had a bad start to the season, there is no denying it. Preston, by contrast, have had a good start to the season, sitting 8th, unbeaten with 4 points. But that doesn’t tell the full picture.
Preston, according to the computers, should have won neither of the opening 2 games. With their play earning them an xP of just 2. This puts them above Sheffield Wednesday who have an xP of just 1.3.
This is largely based on their expected goals, where Preston have yielded an xG of 2 (7th bottom) from their 18 shots (4th bottom).
As I said above, Preston are a throwback team, preferring to kick long rather than the new orthodoxy of ball carries. Preston, with 53 long passes per game, ranks third in the Championship. Whereas they are in the bottom 7 for progressive runs.
Preston’s attacking play is not easy on the eye and leaves a lot to be desired. Their lower-than-average xG’s may also indicate it may not be conducive to long-term success. (See video on attacking play below).
Goalkeeper Woodman conceded the second-highest amount of goals last season (59) and had a negative prevented goals rating. The first two games of this season represent a turnaround for the ever-present goalkeeper, who sits third across goalkeepers for goals prevented, having saved over a goal across the first two games.
Impressive defence, or is it?
Analysis of Preston’s out-of-possession strategy is similar to that of Barnsley from last season. They don’t necessarily high press (PPDA is 9.4 indicates a high press), in their 343 shape the forwards come narrow as they start a high block, with energetic midfield players looking to jump press in the midfield area. When Preston do commit to a press, they do it with aggression. You will note from the video below, which shows their out-of-possession clips, how many fouls they make. Preston look to stop the attack, legally or not.
If the opposition beat the defensive press, Preston look to sit back and defend central spaces, as seen below. Waiting patiently for opportunities to win the ball back.
Whether Preston have a good defence is open to interpretation. Their keeper has performed well and has stopped them from conceding goals, as the xG conceded is higher than the goals conceded.
Their big chances conceded are also worth considering, with Preston having conceded 5 big chances, of which 3 have been missed by the opposition. Sheffield Wednesday, by contrast, have conceded 3 big chances, all of which have been scored (FobMob).
So is their defence good? Or have they been lucky? You decide.
How do we exploit Preston?
As I have just mentioned, Sunderland had 3 big chances against Preston, and only one was scored.
Let’s take a look at Sunderland’s shots from the game to analyse where Preston may be vulnerable.
Preston have an impressive 59% aerial duels won across their first two games. So we shouldn’t expect too much loose change from an aerial bombardment, if that was our plan. The North Ender’s opponents have, by contrast, won just 34% of their aerial duels.
The video above shows that Sunderland caused Preston the most problems when running with the ball in dynamic forward play. This is an issue, seen as we have the lowest progressive runs and 1vs1 dribbles of any team thus far. But in Musaba and Gassama, we have brought players in who could change that.
Musaba, for that reason, should be looking to start the game. Preston defend deep when the ball is inside their half (they press and then drop off), so playing a 10 to receive under pressure in between the lines may also be an idea for Munoz.
A 4231 style is likely best suited for a physical Preston team. The team I would go for is below. Famewo starting at left back to support the aerial bombardment that is likely to come down the Preston right. Playing Musaba with him on the left to account for the lesser attacking threat from Famewo. Windass starting on the right of an attacking 3, but given freedom to move in the pitch and work between the lines, allowing Delgado to overlap and apply his quality up the pitch.
Let me know what you think of the team, or if you would change anything.
End**
Thanks for reading the Total Wednesday Substack. We are currently in a cost-of-living crisis, therefore, I will keep my Substacks public and free to read for the 22/23 season, allowing all Sheffield Wednesday fans to enjoy the content.
However, if you can and wish to financially support Total Wednesday, please consider signing up for the 3.50 per-month subscription. Otherwise, please share the post on social media.
Tom