Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 Preston - Review
Sheffield Wednesday lose for the third time in the Championship. Some say it is progress. Some say it is time for panic. We analyse the game.
5 of the new players lined up for Sheffield Wednesday as they took on PNE at Hillsborough. Online tensions and questions about theout-of-possession strategy preceded the game, following the low-block enacted at Southampton and Hull. With an average possession of just 27% going into the game against Preston, fans had also started to worry about a season of low possession.
Both of these issues were seemingly addressed: Wednesday had a PPDA, the metric to best determine high press, of 6.94. This means that Preston had 6.94 passing actions in their own defensive 60% to every 1 successful defensive action. This is lower (meaning higher press) that the best-ranked team in the Championship this season, Stoke (6.97).
The chart below shows how PPDA changed across 15-minute intervals. Our PPDA dropped as low as 3.4, which is incredibly low (high press). The entire second half was played with a PPDA of less than 5, as Sheffield Wednesday chased the equaliser.
There were encouraging signs on the ball as well. As Sheffield Wednesday had more possession 53-47 and made over 100 passes more than they had in either of their first two games, with a higher accuracy rating of 80% (vs 76 & 74).
The possession stats from Preston’s goal might be misleading, as Preston visibly dropped deeper after their goal. However, between 16-30 mins when Wednesday increased their pressing out, they increased their ball possession to 57%.
This was not just possession passed around the back 4. During this period, Sheffield Wednesday had disproportionately more penalty area entries (4). And 2 of our 3 deep completions, non-cross passes received inside the penalty area.
Neither was it aimlessly launching the ball forward, as the same period showed a decline in our long pass ratio. For this period, Sheffield Wednesday pressed their opposition, played shorter and forward. Is this Xisco ball?
A huge influence of 15-minuteinute spell was the role of Musaba. Musuba played 76 minutes of the match. Therefore,15-minute spell represents 20% of his time on the pitch; in that time, Musaba produced 100% of his touches in the penalty box output 50% of his total dribble output, 50% of his total progressive run output, and 33% of his total received pass output.
In the video below, you see Musaba’s progressive run, dribble, and a deep completion from Barry Bannan.
The best chance for Wednesday arguably came from another deep completion from Barry Bannan on the 38th minute. This time finding Gregory who arguably should have done better following his good initial touch.
Halftime struck with Wednesday in the ascendancy. However, it is worth mentioning that Preston did start the better team, and in the first 15 minutes created chances worth 0.3xG.
The one below where Vasquez saves from Potts. Watch how Potts runs from deep, it is Byers, who is ball-watching, who lets him go.
Former Owl Will Keane had, by xG calculation, the best chance of the first half when he met Best’s cross but could not test Vasquez.
Second Half Stagnation
It felt, at half-time, like Wednesday had laid the foundations to kick on in the second half. However, just 4 minutes into the second half Preston scored from a set piece.
Despite fielding what looked like the biggest team in Sheffield Wednesday history, Wednesday were dominated aerially in the game by a physical Preston team - Preston winning 67% of aerial duels on the pitch. Preston had threatened with two crosses in the first half and it seemed likely that if the Preston were to score, it would be from the air.
There are 3 observations from the set piece. Is Geroge Byers marking the towering Preston center half? If not, why does no one else pick him up as he slips around Byers, and finally, are Lindsey and 3 other Preston forwards offside?
Wednesday struggled from then on, Preston are not the team to go 1-0 against. Having oldmanned Sunderland last week, who possess far more Aces than Wednesday, it was always going to be hard to break down a Preston team who’s 3421 shape naturally allows them to get 9 men behind the ball and protect central spaces.
Preston mustered just two shots following the goal, with an average shot distance of 22 yards and a combined xG of 0.01. Preston averaged just 1.8 passes per sequence of possession, nearly half of their 3.55 before the goal.
Musaba, who was instrumental in Wednesday’s period before the break, was not involved in the game in the 15 minutes from 60-75, before he was replaced. Musaba was involved in just 5 actions. 3 of which were duels. He received just two passes, and only one in the opponents half.
The only bright spark came when Musaba turned Storey and ran the length of the pitch, before the impressive Storey won back the ball. I cant help but think a dynamic striker might have pulled to the left, allowing Delgado to take the false CF position?
After Musaba was replaced and Smith and Fletcher introduced, Wednesday’s tempo (passes per minute of possession) dropped from 15.62 to 13.95. Passess per possession decreased from an average of 3.22 to 2.29. Was this fitness or style? Perhaps a mixture of both.
The oxymoron - Progress & Concern
Progress and concern were both equally observable in the Hillsborough on Saturday. Newboy Momo Diaby personsifies this, as he put in a MOTM performance before being substituted through injury in the second half.
Diaby added much needed balance to the Wednesdday midfield, giving Bannan the security to play further forward. Diaby, whilst being an achoring midfield player, showed his full skillset in the game, contributing to build up play all over the pitch (pass map below), setting up transitions, and breaking opposition transitions up.
The last clip maybe gives a sight of what Xisco brought Diaby in for and what he can do in transition; as he gets the ball and sets up an attack. The issue/concern is, there is no runners with Diaby on the right side, the only place he can keep the running transition going. Palmer and Delgado, maybe through fitness, held back.
Diaby is a huge positive. He was the best player on the pitch on Saturday - only Best of Preston perhaps got close.
Diaby’s loss on 65 mins showed his importance. Barry Bannan was dropped back into a midfield 2 and Wednesday made no deep completions or key passes from Diaby’s exit. Bannan doing the role that Munoz doesn’t want him to do, which is try to do it all. Bannan making 3 times as many long passes after Diaby’s exit than before. Wednesday likely needed an attacking midfielder before Saturday, if Diaby is injured for some time, they will likely need another defensive midfielder.
I have been vocal on this substack about the need for progressive runs and dribbles as, before Satruday, Wednesday ranked bottom of the Championship rankings on both metrics. It was pleasing to see Wednesday attempt 28 dribbles during the game. More than their first two gambes combined - this is improvement.
Progressive runs also increased to 6 from 4 in the last two games. However, whilst our dribbling output on Saturday was similar to that of the top teams, our slight increase in ball carries still ranks as the lowest in the league. We still need dynamicism.
In the first two league games, Sheffield Wednesday managed just 6 positional attacks from the left handside. 10 lower than any other team this season. Wednesday nearly doubled this output on Saturday, as Musaba brought increased output down the left.
Musaba, for all his hard work, had a position that was maybe too wide. His two moments in the first half where he contributed to attacking play, his was recieveing the ball in the pitch. Playing on his wrong foot, Musaba has a lot to do tight to the touchline.
This issue is, in part, created by having a defensive full back in Famewo. Famewo received just 4 passes in the opposition half on Satruday.
The video below highlights how playing an unnatural full back at left back slows down attacking play. In the clip, Diaby drops into false full back, offering a rotation wherein Famewo can step up the pitch into a false winger position, allowing Musaba to move in the pitch. When Famewo gets the ball he is in space, Diaby dropping in should be the trigger to up the tempo and start an attack. A natural full back would have taken the ball into the space and attempted a progressive run, dribble, and a give and go pass. What happened was Famewo received static and the opportunity was missed.
The highest pass Famewo received on Saturday, which was not quite in the opposition third, produced an attempt on target for the Owls. Famewo producing a progressive run, a dribble, and a successful cross.
Munoz may point to Preston’s proclivity to pump the ball high down the right. As keeper Woodman has now done in all 3 league games this season.
But I cant help think there is a balance. Famewo, shows in the clip above that he can produce the attacking output, could he be encouraged to do it more? Or do we need new?
The two pictures below show 2 promotion teams and their different starts to the season. Famewo’s received pass map shows just 4 successfully received passes in the opposition half. Compare that with the pass map of Leif Davis of Ipswich, playing in the same system. Of the teams from the weekend who played a similar shape to Wednesday, only Rotherham’s left back had similar output to Famewo.
With the transfer window closing in just under two weeks time, it feels like Munoz needs to add further to an already bloated squad. With a Striker, midfielder, and left back hopefully high up the priority list. I feel a striker is most urgently needed. Just 4 attacks come through the centre of the pitch against Preston. Lee Gregory received the ball just 7 times. With at least one ESC and 3 loan slots available, it is hopeful Wednesday can add some quality to the squad before September 2nd comes around.
END***
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Tom