I just knew it, I plan a few days away last week wherein I promised my wife I would leave the laptop at home and, of course, we make a triple signing.
This is a quick round-up of Musaba and Diaby. Vasquez will come later in the week.
Anthony Musaba
Musaba joined the club on Thursday night and played 32 minutes against Southampton on Friday, showing the club glimpses of what he can produce. Musaba arrived to much fanfare, owing much to the Youtube highlight reels available. Such reels can be misleading and give a false impression of a player and their holistic ability. I prefer to watch the clips in the Wyscout library at random, showing successful and unsuccessful actions, to get a proper reflection on the player and his consistency. A 2:26 reel from his 1v1s library on Wyscout is below.
The above video shows an exciting player with masses of potential but requires development on his end product and decision-making - this is to be expected, If Musaba had end product he would be playing for Monaco: not being let go for free.
Musaba spent the last half of the 2022/23 season at NEC Nijmegen, an analysis of his time there vs all Eredivisie wingers show exciting results. Running with the ball metrics are impressively high and sit on the 100th percentile. Meaning no one completed more Accelerations and Progressive Runs per 90 than Musaba in that league. Shots, dribbles, and xA per 90, all rank high.
Caution is required, however; when reviewing his time in the Eredivisie, as well as his time on loan at the French second-division team, FC Metz, at the start of the 2022/23 campaign, Musaba started just 4 games throughout his 2 loan spells. His maximum time on the pitch was 82 mins. It is often the case that players like Musaba, attacking wingers, are brought on the pitch when losing and are instructed to “run” at the opposition. Therefore, attacking metrics can be inflated.
The data below shows an overview of Musaba’s match time over the 22/23 season. You will note that Musaba averaged just 28% of the minutes available in the games he featured in.
Based on the above, I looked to isolate the data when Musaba started or played a sizeable substitute role, to check the hypothesis above that attacking output is inflated.
There was a statistical difference in higher total dribble output when being brought on as a sub with less than 15 mins left, the extrapolated per 90 metric increased by 10%. However, other metrics, such as progressive runs, shots, and total successful actions, dropped significantly. With total successful actions dropping from 56% to 44%. This may imply that Musaba, when brought on for a small amount of time, tries to do too much. He will, perhaps, over-dribble, which impacts his decision-making. The data shows that Musaba’s consistent work, which is conducive to successful actions, is achieved by starting him in games or playing a larger substitute role.
The image above shows Musaba’s dribbles in the final third from his time at NEC. It is pleasing to see Musaba with a 70% success rate dribbling against CBs and the high shot output from the left. Musaba’s xG following dribbling in the final third is more than double the actual goal output, which shows that work is needed on his finishing. Again, this is likely why he has got a move to Sheffield Wednesday. Strikers that outperform their xG are rarely available for free. If we can work on this with Musaba, his value will appreciate, and that is the aim.
The image above shows Musaba and how he typically progresses with the ball. It is notable in the progressive run arrows, which indicate distance, the distance of the carries when starting in his own area. It is this reason why progressive runs may be lower, as identified above, as when Musaba comes on late it is to chase the game, and by this point, the opposition has likely dropped off to protect the lead. If we are to defend deep this season, like we did against Southampton, starting Musaba to exploit the gaps left by overlapping fullbacks would be a good strategy.
Bambo Diaby
Big Bambo Diaby signed from Preston on Thursday but had to sit out Friday’s opener as he was finishing a suspension picked up last season. Hopefully, he features tonight against Stockport.
Diaby’s report card for the 22/23 season with Preston is below.
The above shows Diaby to be a real defender. With high defensive output with defensive duels per 90 and defensive duels won metrics sitting above the 80th percentile. What may concern is the total passing output. However, this could be more style. Preston were in the bottom third of championship teams for possession and passing last season. And in the top third for long balls. Style can often account for low passing output for defenders and it is important to caveat. What is promising is the accurate pass ratio. Diaby sitting above the 60th percentile for accurate passes and above the 70th for accurate forward passes.
Diaby has played in the Italian, Spanish, Belgian, and English football leagues, therefore, he will have a wealth of experience in playing in different styles and systems.
Testament to the point made about Preston
and their style, Diaby made just an average of 28 passes per 90 for Preston in the championship last season. Diaby’s passing output was over 10 passes higher per 90 the year before with Preston in a more possession-based set-up. And Diaby averaged over 37 per 90 playing in Belgium with Lokeren.
The below pass map is one from a game in Spain, whilst Diaby was playing for Peralada, where he made a career-high 84 passes, with a 96% accuracy rating. This indicates the scope to use Diaby in a possession-based, passing team
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Tom