Hull City AFC Preview
Our first away game of the season is near us, as Sheffield Wednesday take on Hull City. We preview the game, take a look at Hull's strengths and how we might want to approach the game.
Sheffield Wednesday travel to Humberside in their first away game of the new campaign, with both teams looking to get off the mark following opening-day defeats.
Hull City - what do we know, and how did 22/23 go?
The Tigers perhaps underachieved last season, finishing lower mi-table in 15th position under Head Coach Liam Rosenior. That is because, on paper, Hull City possess a strong team. It may come as a surprise to most that Hull City are ranked 6th for squad value on transfermrkt. And have a total squad value of some five times that of the Owls. Defender Jacob Greaves is worth nearly as much as the Sheffield Wednesday squad (11m vs 13m) according to the same source.
The Tigers tended to play a possession-based 442 in 22/23, and Rosenior looks to be continuing in this for the coming season, setting up the same way in their first game against Norwich City at Carrow Road, where the Tigers lost 2-1.
The Tigers amassed an impressive 427 10+ pass sequences over the 22/23 Championship campaign, only promoted Burnley, Russell Martin’s Swansea, Promotion favourites Middlesborough, and Blackburn Rovers had more. This is also reflected in average passes per sequence, where Rosenior’s men ranked 4th, and in build-up attacks as a share of total attacks where they ranked 7th.
Despite this impressive playing style, it hasn’t worked for Hull; despite finishing 9 points clear of the relegation zone, they should count themselves lucky, with their expected points, based on data from games across the season, having them at just 5th bottom, 3 points off the drop zone. This is largely because of keeper Ingram, who ranked on top of the Championship for the metric “prevented goals”, saving 6 clear goals over the season and 0.6 per game.
They might have also been let down by their out-of-possession strategy, which is less complimentary than their in-possession data. The Tigers finished with the third highest PPDA, Passes Per Defensive Action, which is a metric worked out by counting all passes the opposition makes in their own defensive 60% and dividing that by successful defensive actions in that area. The lower the score, the higher and more successful the press. So in this case, higher is worse, they finished third worst. It is probably reflective of another poor defensive metric, challenge intensity, worked out as duels, tackles and interceptions per minute of opposition possession, the Tigers finished 2nd lowest, so, second worst, with just 5.5. The Tigers also score low for defensive duel success, where a 60% success ratio sees them 6th bottom of the rankings.
How did they look against Norwich?
There was a bit of deja vu when reviewing the game against Norwich, with Hull City largely playing to form. The first thing to notice is the XG, with the game being the widest xG margin in the opening round (3.21 vs 0.56). The Tigers nearly stole a point at Carrow Road, which would have been harsh, to say the least, as Hull were statistically the least likely team to win their opener, based on the match data, which gave them an xP of just 0.2.
How did Norwich win the game and expect to score so many?
Norwich, last season, were a possession-based team who favoured build-up attacks, however, such passing finesse was not needed due to the defending of Hull City.
The image below is one from the game listing all of Hull City’s aerial duels lost. The Tigers won just 42% of aerial duels however, more importantly, they lost them in key areas, as seen below. CB Jacob Greaves lost 6/8 defensive duels, all inside his penalty box.
The Canaries were all too willing to go long against the Tigers to exploit their defensive vulnerabilities, averaging a pass length of 20m, a figure you would typically expect from Rotherham. It wasn’t just that Hull lost aerial duels, it’s that they allowed Norwich to pick up the ball too often in the second phase.
The above image shows where Norwich recovered the ball from positioning, meaning they picked up a loose ball. A large contingent of these are around the right side of the penalty box.
The video below shows how Norwich’s forward players get around the ball during aerial challenges, put pressure on the Hull back line, and are in a position to win the second ball.
Hull, like last season, played a 442 against Norwich, setting up in a clear 2 banks of 4 with a flat midfield. The Tigers midfield did not help their struggling defenders, Reagan Slater, competed for just one aerial challenge in the game, despite Nowrich’s proclivity to go long. From watching the tapes, it is observable that the gap between the Tigers defensive and midfield was too high and it invited Norwich to get into second-phase spaces. In the video below, you see the 442 shape and how Slater and Seri choose to hold their rigid position rather than follow the running player, probably hoping Norwich played sidewards, but the Canaries went over the top and Norwich again picked up the ball.
Hull, architects of their own downfall?
As mentioned, Hull like to play out from the back and they tried to do so against Norwich, as per the touches matrix below which shows who had the most touches in which zone, Hull dominated Norwich in most of their defensive areas. However, this was also the undoing of Hull.
The first big chance of the game fell to Norwich as they capitalised on Hull’s desire to play out against a high press. This is a strange strategy in a 442 when the overload is typically higher up the pitch. This failure is in part due to an impressive, yet simple, pressing strategy from Norwich, but also only the very elite teams can pass out consistently with no overload.
On the rare times when Hull went long they had success: their opener, which put them 1-0 up against the run of play, was from a long ball which on-loan Man City striker Liam Delap managed to recover and put away.
So how did Norwich have success pressing? I have broken down their pressing strategy against a goal kick set up Sheffield Wednesday fans will be familiar with.
In stages 1) stop the switch. Note how the presser first shuts off the pitch, forcing the play one way to reduce the size and scope of passing options 2) With the keeper shut off, the second presser can move towards the ball whilst screening the ball into the middle. This gives the defender just 2 options, either the long ball or a pass into the right back, this is a pressing principle called making play predictable. The left midfielder can get into a front foot position ready to press when it goes to the right back 3) Once with the right-back, the fullback needs to step up and come behind the winger, as he does, to shut the final quick short pass off. Using the front foot advantage, the left winger can move in and make contact with the ball before Coyle can play long.
Hull didn’t learn, as the below video shows them doing it again, as they continued to do throughout the game.
How do we exploit them?
Norwich laid down a blue-print on how to approach Hull out of possession. There is, however a spanner in the works. Sheffield Wednesday recorded a PPDA of 44 against Southampton and only improved to 14 against Stockport (14 is typically a low score indicating a mid-deep position).
With fitness levels down, we should not, if we were inclined, operate an all-out pressing strategy. Having periods wherein we drop off and conserve energy and periods of organised collective pressing. One area to exploit is Hull restarts, goal kicks, and free kicks in their own half. Hull will play against a press. So set up to press. The big rectangle represents the area the 9 should shut off, making it predictable on the right side. With 10 and 11 taking front-foot positions and attacking the ball on movement.
In possession, we need to show more attacking impetus than we have in our first two games. Chiefly, we need to get our forward players closer together to link up.
Whilst Norwich focused their attack down the Tigers right, it was opportunities on the left which caused more xG. This is in part because the Hull left back, the on-loan Vinagre, is attacking and does most of his work in the opponent’s half. If Musaba is to start, which I think he should, then playing him on the right side against an attacking left-back would be an idea to exploit gaps and set up counterattacks.
Whilst I expect and am glad we will seek to play out from the back as a philosophy, We need to exploit the Hull City backline and put them under pressure. Exploit the 442 shape Hull will play and get players in between lines to pick up loose balls. As Norwich did. Encouraging midfield runners to join in with the attacking line.
One area Hull seemed to have improved with the addition of the physical Delap is their press, where they had an impressive 10.4 PPDA against Norwich. You would expect, at home, that they continue this strategy against a team they likely perceive to be weaker. Can we use this to our advantage?
To play a high pressing (at times), team that can compete on the front line, you need athleticism and competitive strikers. Smith would be the best option for physically competing, but I have worries about the pressing. as I do with Gregory.
Therefore, the team I would suggest is 4-3-3
Vasquez,
Paterson, Iorfa, Ihiekwe, Famewo
Bannan, Bakinson, Windass
Musaba, Fletcher, Delgado
END***
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Tom
I still think it'd be beneficial to have a shortened summary of the content for those who don't wish to wade through all the analysis.