*In an effort to condense these articles, I nearly always go over the word count for an email newsletter and have to go back and rectify it, I will jump straight into the analysis from now on*
First Half Acceptance
It seemed, for 45 minutes, that Munoz had done his homework and Sheffield Wednesday, may, against the odds, manage to win a point or three in Humberside on Saturday. Whilst it was not pretty, and there were errors, the first half was just about acceptable against a team far, far superior. It is important to not lose sight of Hull’s superiority over what is mostly an ageing League 1 starting 11 that Munoz fielded. The Tigers have a squad worth of nearly 70m according to reputable outfit Transfermrkt. And a marquee 65 cap Turkey international who showed his class. Truth be told, no Sheffield Wednesday player who started Saturday, minus maybe Devis Vasquez, would get in Hull’s starting 11.
The aerial duels map below shows that Wednesday largely targeted the left side. Using Calum Paterson’s physical presence on the right wing against the weak Hull left side. This was a good plan given the Norwich game last weekend where they were aerially dominated, as I discussed in the preview.
As you can see in the video below, Vasquez’s pinpoint kicking to Paterson enabled Wednesday to pick up second balls against a rigid Hull backline. It was good to see, particularly in the second clip, Strikers close together and Gregory able to pick up the flick on from Paterson. On both occasions, delivery let us down, but it was good intent; and a sign we had done our homework.
Our out-of-possession strategy, whilst frustrating, was effective. Up until the penalty, Hull were restricted to half chances and mustered just a 0.2 xG. The plan was simple, stay compact and defend central spaces.
My friend Peter Lohmann observed in his Substack, to which I recommend subscribing, the narrow and compact nature of the out-of-possession strategy. Which saw Paterson and Delgado play, whilst out of possession (of which we mostly were), as right and left CMs. Both heat maps are below.
This worked, insofar as restricting attacks through the middle, with just 3 build-up attacks coming through the centre of the pitch. The image below shows the positional attack side and the subsequent xG. Sheffield Wednesday restricted Hull to just a 0.1 xG from open play in the first half. Conceding only from a controversial penalty, 5 minutes into added time.
The sceptics are right that we perhaps stood off too much, particularly to start the game. The image below shows PPDA across the game. For new readers, a lower score means higher press (see previous articles for a thorough definition). Sheffield Wednesday started the game with a PPDA of 24 but worked up to 11.4 as the half progressed. Buoyed by the confidence of the goal, it reduced to below the league average by the halftime whistle.
Wednesday could have stepped on the gas and pressed Hull as Norwich did last weekend. However, what is observable from the above is that every time Wednesday stepped up their pressing, Hull scored. This may be a coincidence. But it is food for thought for those who think Wednesday should have adopted a high line and out all pressing.
There were moments of passing and rotation that were pleasing to see, just too infrequent, given the possession stats, and mostly in our defensive third. And it was all mostly in the first 15 minutes. The tempo of Sheffield Wednesday’s play, which is passes per minute of pure possession, was 15.7, which is a marked improvement from last week's game against Southampton. For reference, this is higher than Plymouth’s first 2 Championship games, where they had a tempo of 15.2 and 13.5. So Munoz critics who say the team has no style, this may not be so true, there are signs, if you look hard enough.
We did have a disappointing 15-minute spell where we could not retain the ball and gave it away far too cheaply. The chart below shows how our possession changed throughout the match. The 12-28 minute period saw Wednesday drop from 42% possession to just 19. Wednesday started with an average pass sequence of 5.5 from the first whilst to the 15 minute mark. However, 16-45+ saw us drop to just 2.2, with the nadir being 1.7. Paterson, for all his hard work and effective aerial play, made just 9 passes in the 101 minutes of which just 5 were accurate. However, it is unfair to single out Pato, as Wednesday finished the first half with a pass accuracy of just 72%, nearly 10% lower than the league average.
Second Half Collapse.
The only justification for playing so deep and allowing your opponents so much possession is if it works. As, if it doesn’t, It is extremely difficult to watch. Fans would much rather see their teams “have a go” and lose than defend all game and lose.
Losing Barry Bannan at half time rocked Wednesday. Bannan, despite his age, does have a desire to close down spaces and is aggressive out of possession. Whereas the oncoming Will Vaulks is more of a screening player, with high interceptions. Vaulks, heatmap below, did most of his work in what would be a CB position.
This is part why our PPDA dropped at the start of the second half to 28, and why Hull City, as per the below, were able to start focusing their attack in the middle, where the xG is higher (as it was).
Hull found spaces in between Sheffield Wednesday lines in central areas for the first time in the second half and they made us pay. Give a 4 million, 65-cap quality player space to shoot and he will punish us; this isn’t League 1.
Hull also had more joy down the right-hand side as Famewo tucked right in to deal with the new threat in the middle, allowing Coyle space down the right-hand side.
It was only when George Byers came on Sheffield Wednesday settled. Hull were 4-1 up at this stage, that has to be caveated. But Byers, in less time, recovered the ball as much as any Sheffield Wednesday midfielder player, and had the most pass linkages with any Sheffield Wednesday striker, which was fellow substitute Smith.
Byers’ aggressive defensive attributes often go under the radar, but his full, holistic skillset was on display when he won the ball back high up the pitch and played a wonderful through ball for Smith who made it 4-2.
Progressive runs
As I have mentioned earlier, there is some identity in our style of attacking play. The match tempo is average for the championship, and we have brought a keeper in that could play outfield. The issue is that this play happens all too often in our own half or middle third. We simply cannot get up the pitch! I spent a large part of preseason explaining on socials that the major difference between Championship and League One is the way the ball is progressed. With the ratio of long balls dropping, and progressive runs increasing.
We sit bottom of the progressive runs rankings in the Championship, with just 11 over the first two games, or 4.7/90. Our closest competitors, Rotherham, manage just over 6 per 90 and have 18 over the first two games. The league average is over 14.
Plymouth, who I mentioned earlier have had lower passes per minute of pure possession (match tempo), scores much higher on progressive runs. With Bali Mumba And Morgan Whittaker both completing more carries over the first two games than our entire team combined (Mumba averaging 5.4 progressive runs per 90 where SWFC average 4.7).
We simply cannot get the ball into the areas where our rotations and through passing, a metric where we are 13th, can be effective.
The game against Hull City saw 4 progressive runs. Whilst nowhere near enough, they all created chances. One provided a goal. And, particularly in the fast transition that results in the cross from Josh Windass, you get a glimpse of Xiscoball.
Progressive runs are an area where we have struggled for some time. We finished 13th last year on the metric in League 1, below the league average. It wasn’t as big an issue given the game is much more static in League 1. Plymouth and Ipswich, however, finished top 2 on progressive runs and played a brand of football much more conducive to Championship success, so it has been no surprise to see them transition well. Neither team will go down. Ipswich might go up.
Wednesday have acquired players with high running output. Musaba averages 5 carriers per 90 over his career and Pol Valentin averages more progressive runs per 90 than any other Championship right back over the last 12 months. Whether they can make an impression in the Championship remains to be seen. But we need more players in the team who can run with the ball. We still need to add in this department.
No left side
I wrote in my Southampton post-match review how Sheffield Wednesday had just 1 positional attack down the left side. Whilst this improved during the Hull game, It was still out of balance with the right. This is more interesting as the player who played on the right last week against Southampton, where we fashioned 6x as many attacks vs the left, played on the left against Hull.
Playing Akin Famewo at left-back has its advantages, he is an impressive defender, as I have championed. However, it seems to come at the expense of any real attacking threat. Neither Josh Windass nor Delgado are “rapid”, so need support down the left-hand side on the overlap. Famewo’s heatmap is below, showing how little he went forward. Apart from set pieces, he never went into the attacking third.
If we are going to continue to play Delgado or Windass on the wing, I would like to see Reece James come into left back. To offer a more attacking threat. James sat on the 90th percentile for progressive runs vs all defenders in League 1 last season.
It would make sense to play Famewo at left-back behind a Musaba type, allowing Musaba freedom to attack and providing that defensive support. This may be food for thought for Munoz. One thing is for sure, we can’t keep abandoning the left side.
Strikers
The debate about Smith and whether he should be playing for SWFC is somewhat of a red herring, the fact is, we need a striker. Windass aside, who is likely not a striker, the highest goals return in a single Championship season for Fletcher, Smith and Gregory is 11 (Fletcher), some 5 years ago, Gregory and Smith both scored 10 in past seasons, but that was again some years ago. They are 31 and 36 now. If we are going to be a transition team, which it looks like we are, then we need a striker who can carry the ball and cause a goal threat. In the two games thus far, where we have had just 27% possession, we have mustered just 1 attempted counterattack. In the game on Saturday, Lee Gregory has zero shots, made zero progressive runs, passed the ball just 8 times and made zero recoveries. Gregory is a poacher. As per his goal against Southampton. When you have 27% of the ball, a poacher is not what is needed. You need a striker to work outside of the box, make runs, come short, win the ball, create something out of nothing. Smith or Fletcher would be better options than Gregory in this system as they are more effective in the air, Gregory had a 0% aerial success rate, and we can at least build on second phases attacks.
This is not to dig out Gregory, he just isn’t suited to this style of football, and he is in the twilight of his career. Either Fletcher or Smith needs to lead the line in the absence of another striker, but I think most fans agree we need another, more rounded striker. This may cost Chansiri. But it could be the difference between staying up and not. There is an 8m differential in income between the Championship and League 1. It’s your call Mr Chansiri, but I know what I’d do.
END***
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Tom
Great review, think a left back and an attacking midfielder (ideally who could also do a job centrally or up top, maybe van de strook fits that bill but appreciate he’s more industrial than technical, maybe ghoddos a better option) both with real technical ability could be the final pieces. What are your thoughts on Juan Familia-Castillo? Can play left back and left side midfield, on the face of it looks fairly quick and technically sound with his Ajax / Chelsea education, free agent only 23 and has dipped his toes in this league already at Birmingham previously on loan