Cardiff vs Sheffield Wednesday - Preview
Sheffield Wednesday cross the Welsh border on Saturday looking for their first 3 points of the season - we preview Cardiff, their strengths, and how we exploit them.
Cardiff can thank Reading for their Championship status after the Royals’ 6-point deduction in April last season saw the Bluebirds escape relegation.
Cardiff, however, can consider themselves a little unlucky with their play, by an expected points calculation, worth some 58 points. A figure that would have seen the Bluebirds 15th, rather than 4th bottom.
So what went wrong for Cardiff last year? Goals! Cardiff managed just 41 goals in the 22/23 campaign. A tally that saw them above only basement club Wigan. Cardiff did, however, manage to score 11 goals from outside the box - a figure beaten only by Champions Burnley.
This means Cardiff scored only 30 goals from inside the penalty area. The lowest in the Championship by 6.
This was not through a lack of shots, Cardiff sat mid-table on this ranking. Although the xG per shot was the lowest in the league, at just 0.103.
Cardiff have brought in strikes Karlen Grant and Ike Ugbo in to bolster their forward line this summer, both on loan as the Bluebirds are under a transfer embargo, with the latter scoring two goals already this term.
How has the season started for Cardiff?
Cardiff, like Sheffield Wednesday, have had a tough start to the season. Both in fixtures and in results. The Bluebirds playing 2 of the 3 relegated PL teams in their first 3 games, sandwiched in between a game against relegation favourites QPR.
Cardiff sit just 1 point above the Owls, having drawn their first game of the season against Leeds United. Before back-to-back losses. This is despite a reversal in their xG/shot ratio, Cardiff have gone from the bottom of the league in 22/23, to second in their first 3 games this season.
Truth is, Cardiff have been unlucky. Their season average for xG is higher than their xG against. Their expected points, driven by xG, from their first 3 games is 4.7. A figure that would have them in the playoffs.
There are some similarities with the Owls. Both have, statistically, implemented the lowest press across their first 3. Who is bottom depends on which outlet you use. We will come back to that later. They are 2nd bottom and 4th bottom of the league when it comes to possession. Both are under the league average for progressive carries, although the Owls are way behind (5.7 vs. 9.9). And both are under the average for 1vs1s and dribbling, although it is the Owls this time that outrank their opponents, with Cardiff amassing the second lowest 1vs1s in the league this season.
Cardiff’s Style
Cardiff have played a 4231 system over their first 3 games with returning Aaron Ramsey being pivotal in their upturn in performance, albeit this has not returned an upturn, thus far, in results.
Despite Cardiff’s low possession stats, just 4% higher than our season average, they have amassed double the amount of 10 pass sequences, and have a passing rate (passes per minute of possession) of 14.3, the 7th highest in the league. With just 36 long passes per 90, they are under the Championship average. With a direct speed (how fast the ball is progressed up the pitch, measured in m/s) of 1.52, they are in one of the faster teams in the league at progressing the ball up the pitch.
Keeper, Jack Alnwick, has similar passing metrics to Devis Vasquez, with both playing 19 passes/90. Vasquez plays slightly more short passes (14 vs. 12.5/90) and has a slightly shorter average pass length (31 vs. 33m).
Cardiff are in the upper right quadrant, along with Coventry and Middlesborough, showing direct speed and shorter passing; this is the best quadrant to be in as it usually denotes fast and attacking, but controlled football.
Out of possession, Cardiff have struggled. They have conceded 2 goals in each of their 3 games so far. If not for the woodwork, they would have conceded more. There are many similarities in the out-of-possession data between Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff. Both have similar goals conceded (7 vs. 6), and similar (low) challenge intensity (successful defensive actions per minute of opponent possession) (4.5 vs. 4.7).
The most interesting aspect of Cardiff’s out-of-possession, which is similar to the Owls, is PPDA. Depending on which outlet you use, who is at the bottom changes. The Owls, according to Wyscout, have a PPDA of 21.66 and Cardiff 15.63. Whereas on Opta, Cardiff have a PPDA of 25 and the Owls 21.3. The variance is down to the area of the pitch PPDA is counted, and Wyscout and Opta have different cut-offs.
Low defensive intensity in zone 14
We are going to get a little data technical. PPDA is a calculation that takes all the passes your opponents make within an area of the pitch and divides it by the number of defensive actions. It stands for passes per defensive action. Wyscout, count all passes made in the opponent’s first 60% of the pitch.
Therefore, the lower the score in this area, the higher and more successful the (high) press.
The difference with Opta is that they count all passes up until the edge of the opponent’s box. 67% of the pitch. The 7% difference in pitch counting area between Wyscout and Opta, therefore, indicates that Cardiff’s defensive success superiority over Sheffield Wednesday erodes in the final third, where their PPDA increases from 15 to 25, and ours drops slightly. Cardiff allow their opponents to dominate Zone 14, which is statistically the most dangerous zone on the pitch.
This was apparent in their last game against Leicester City, where Cardiff showed such a lack of intent to press and win the ball back on the edge of their area.
In this first clip, Leicester make some 25 touches in the attacking third without a Cardiff challenge, before hitting the woodwork.
In the second clip, watch how the supporting defensive winger for Cardiff shows inside the pitch and allows a pass into zone 14.
In the next clip, you see how Cardiff attempt to press, however, it is uncoordinated and Leicester beat it. Cardiff then dropped deep with little pressure on the ball and again invited a shot.
Ultimately, this is how Leicester scored the winner. Cardiff were camped in their third when a short free kick was taken. Dewsbury-Hall was granted the freedom of Leicester to walk in unopposed and take a shot. The mele that followed allowed Leicester to take 3 points.
How do we take advantage?
The team that has the most control in zone 14 has a better chance of winning the game. It is this season why, despite better in possession metrics, Cardiff have had, like us, a slow start to the season and are winless in 3.
It is this reason why, despite having more of the ball than the Owls, Cardiff have faced slightly more shots. But significantly more shots per opponent's possession.
To make the most of this, Wednesday must engage their full-backs higher up the pitch, allowing their wide forwards to move inside and overload zones 13, 14 and, significantly, zone 14. Cardiff will afford Wednesday time to shoot on the edge of the box; we have to take the opportunity and shoot.
Wednesday need to offer rotations in the zones below, overloading areas and playing on 2-touch to generate shooting opportunities.
Wednesday does not have crossing-style wingers. It would therefore be an option to try Josh Windass as a false 9 forward who drops in and offers rotations with Musaba & Delgado.
The team I suggest is:
What's the data equation for stop screwing around with passing the ball at the back? Huge problems remain for Wednesday with Munoz trying to shoe-horned players into a system which doesn't suit their abilities while too many of the newer players ( save Vasquez ) look average at best. Bannan's continued misuse is criminal.