Sheffield Wednesday have signed forward Ashley Fletcher from Watford on a season-long loan.
Fletcher has had a disappointing last few seasons, including the 2022/23 season where he was relegated whilst on loan at Wigan, playing 22 times and scoring 2 goals. He will be hoping new manager Xisco, whom he knows from his time at Watford, can get his career back on track and reinvigorate the quality that once saw him cost Middlesborough some six and a half million pounds.
What do we know about Fletcher?
Some have suggested Fletcher might be a similar player to Michael Smith: this is a lazy comparison owing much to the fact they are both over 6 feet. The image above is Fletcher’s heatmap, whilst the one below belongs to Smith. You can see that Fletcher primarily works behind the forward line and with the attacking midfield unit. Whereas Smith does the majority of his work in the 18-yard box and little immediately outside of the box.
Whilst not as effective, it is more reflective of the heatmap of Josh Windass (below). That is not to say Fletcher plays like Josh Windass. No. It is just to say that they do their work in the same area of the pitch.
What does the data say?
There is no dressing it up, the data, on the whole, isn’t great. Fletcher himself has admitted to having a torrid time of late, so it comes as no surprise
There are glimmers of hope within the data, however, which must be taken with the balance of being in a relegation team that frequently had less possession than their opponents. What I mean by this is, it is always unlikely that a player from such a team will have high passing, shooting, and goal-scoring stats compared to other strikers in the league.
There are glimmers, however; aerial duels per 90 being on the 85th percentile throws into doubt the talk that Fletcher might be lazy. Such high aerial output, as we will see later, puts him in front of every single current Sheffield Wednesday player. That is despite Sheffield Wednesday playing more long balls than Wigan last season.
Another glimmer for Fletcher is his goal conversion rate, which is considerably higher than his goals and shots. Again, indicative of a player playing in a team that does not score goals, goals per 90 and shots are expected to be lower (maybe not this low), but it is worth balancing that off against the conversion rate, which is around the average for Championship Strikers.
Looking back at Fletcher during his time at Middlesborough in 19/20, where he had his most prolific season, scoring 11 goals. He averaged.35 goals per game, putting him on the 65th percentile, and assists per game of 0.2, putting him again around the 65th percentile. For reference, this is similar attacking output to Josh Windass last season, albeit Fletcher did it in the Championship and Windass in League 1. So Fletcher has performed better. There is hope.
Fletcher vs SWFC Midfielders and Attackers
I have compiled the data from the 2022/23 season for Sheffield Wednesday midfield and attacking players from their time in League 1, and the same data from Ashley Fletcher from his time at Wigan.
The chart below shows running with the ball, an area that Sheffield Wednesday needs to improve vs dribbling, another area for improvement (as evidenced by the chart). Fletcher is at above the median line for accelerations and is the median point for dribbling, so in that, adding Fletcher does not compound the issues we have of low running and dribbling output.
The chart below shows the key passing output vs expected assists, showing how Fletcher fits in with the creativity of the current players. It is worth caveating that the Sheffield Wednesday players played in a record-breaking season for wins and goals. Whereas Wigan were relegated. So it is natural he would have fewer opportunities per game for creative output. And Fletcher is playing a league above. So around the median line for both metrics is not as bad as it first looks.
The chart below shows aerial duels per 90 vs successful defensive actions. This is where you see the increased output for Fletcher vs the Sheffield Wednesday players. Fletcher was active last season getting around aerial balls and at 6ft 1 is clearly a threat from set pieces.
How might Fletcher fit in at Sheffield Wednesday?
Whilst Fletcher did drop in behind the lines whilst playing for Wigan last season, he was, at least in theory, deployed as a traditional CF. However, during the aforementioned 20/21 season at Middlesborough, where he scored 11 goals, he operated on the left and right of a front free, as well as playing as a striker.
Is it this position where I think Fletcher would operate best, playing in a fluid attacking unit behind the striker.
Munoz, whilst he has primarily operated a 4141 during the friendly matches, but did opt for a 4231 in Spain, albeit not successful. 4231 is a formation Xisco has used in the past and it is the formation that he took Watford out of the Championship with, could Fletcher be part of a plan to operate in this system?
Fletcher could of course play the lone striker role, however, I would worry about his goal output if playing in a 4141 system. However, playing striker in a 4231 system would allow Fletcher to interchange with an advanced shadow attacking unit.
The image below shows Fletcher dropping in and allowing rotation with the attacking midfield players. And how fellow new boy Delgado may support by overlapping.
END.
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